Professor Jancy Ling Liu, recently had a paper titled Do State Abortion Bans Impact People’s Location Decisions? published as a National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) working paper. The NBER is a cutting edge, reputable, and non-partisan economic research organization. Dr Liu’s paper coauthored with Dr. Daniel Dench (Assistant Professor), Dr. Jason Lindo (Professor), Kelly Lifchez (PhD student). It highlights a partnership that spans multiple academic levels. The research team combined their expertise in distinct but complementary areas. Professor Liu, an expert in migration studies, brought her deep understanding of migration patterns, while Dr. Dench and Dr. Lindo contributed their specialization in reproductive rights and fertility rates.
Using USPS change-of-address data, the team constructed population migration patterns to explore the impact of state abortion bans on migration. Their findings revealed an increase in outmigration from states where abortion is banned following the implementation of such policies. This evidence aligns with survey responses: Individuals are reluctant to live in states with abortion bans. This result is despite the team’s initial skepticism about whether people would act on their stated preferences given the high costs of moving.
According to Professor Liu, one of the major challenges in conducting this research was the recency of the data, given the short time frame since abortion bans were enacted. Another significant challenge was establishing causal relationships between abortion bans and migration. To overcome this, the team employed a synthetic difference-in-differences method. This technique allowed them to identify causal relationships between abortion bans and migration by constructing counterfactual scenarios for treatment states (abortion ban states).
The key message that the team wants readers to take from the research are the broader implications of abortion bans beyond health outcomes. The team emphasizes that these policies have significant economic consequences, particularly in the labor market. States with abortion bans may struggle to attract and retain younger workers, who are critical to economic growth and future workforce development. These demographic shifts could impact tax bases, housing markets, and workforce availability in key industries, posing long-term challenges for regional economies.
To access the full working paper, please follow this link.